The correction
in four charts

Where price actually stopped

The decline from mid-May has moved into the synced low. Price swept the low discussed a few weeks earlier and has spent three weeks holding above the weekly demand band rather than closing through it. That is the difference between a market that is failing and a market that is basing.

Three levels are doing the work here. The quarterly high at 118 capped the rally twice before the break. The monthly open at 104 flipped from support to resistance on the way down, which is the behaviour you want to see confirmed rather than assumed. The weekly demand at 83 is where the sweep happened.

None of that is a forecast. It is a description of what the chart has already done, which is the only thing you can build a plan on.

The decline in numbers

Not every asset fell the same way

Commonality tells you whether a move belongs to one asset or to the whole risk complex. When crypto falls 40% and copper falls 12%, those are not the same event, and they do not need the same plan.

The alt coins carried the damage, as they usually do. Metals and industrial commodities held their structure through the same period, which is worth noting before treating a crypto drawdown as a signal about anything wider.

The 12 May warning

Ethereum gave back the entire mid-cycle move and then closed below that price point. That is a warning about the phase, not about the next candle: it says the asset is likely to correct through the remainder of the cycle and that rally attempts should be treated with caution.

Rebasing both to the same starting point is the honest way to show this. In dollar terms the two lines look like different stories at different scales. Set them to 100 on 1 January and the separation point is obvious.

A plan, not a prediction

Most of the questions that come in are prediction questions. Where does it go next, what does the dominance chart say, what did an influencer post this morning. Comparing charts and headlines in an attempt to guess the next move is a waste of time and energy, because there is no such thing as factual predictive data.

You cannot control what the market does. You can control the setup. Build a plan from what the chart has already shown you, decide what you want to see and when you want to see it, and decide what you do not want to see. Once that is written down, most of the psychological problem takes care of itself, because you already know what invalidates the idea.

If you do not understand those conditions, you should not be entering the trade. That is also why signal groups do not work. There are no shortcuts.